A handful of on-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin could be close to bottoming, and if true, the eventual relief rally could induce sharp gains from altcoins.
The United States equity markets and the cryptocurrency space are witnessing a relief rally this week. Supporting the rise in risky assets is the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which retreated from its multi-year high. Generally, cryptocurrencies move inverse to the price of the U.S. dollar, but this week’s bounce does not necessarily mean that bulls’ grip over the market has come to an end.
Citing on-chain data, CryptoQuant senior analyst Julio Moreno, said that Bitcoin (BTC) miners may have already capitulated. Historical data suggests that miner capitulation usually precedes market bottoms.
Another on-chain metric that indicates that Bitcoin’s price may have reached an attractive level is the Mayer Multiple. The metric is calculated by dividing the price of Bitcoin by the 200-day moving average value. It points to whether Bitcoin is overbought, undervalued or fairly priced. On June 22, the indicator’s reading was 0.5 and according to crypto entrepreneur Kyle Chasse, Bitcoin’s price has dipped below this reading only on 3% of all trading days.
Several on-chain indicators are suggesting that Bitcoin may be close to a bottom. Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out what the technicals suggest!
Bitcoin is attempting a recovery in a downtrend but the bulls are struggling to push the price to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $23,024. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.
The first hurdle for the bulls is likely to be $21,723 and then the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA ($23,529). During strong downtrends, bears sell on rallies to this level. Hence, it becomes an important level to keep an eye on.
If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are in command. The sellers will then make another attempt to sink the BTC/USDT pair to the crucial level at $17,622.
Conversely, if buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip. That could open the doors for a possible rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($27,995).
Ether (ETH) had been trading between $1,200 and $1,050 since June 20. This tight range trading resolved to the upside on June 24 as bulls attempt to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($1,332).
This level is likely to attract strong resistance from the bears. If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
The bears will then try to pull the price to $1,050. A break and close below this support could retest the vital support at $881.
Alternatively, if bulls drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a rally to the breakdown level of $1,700 increases.
The bears tried to pull BNB below $211 on June 22 but the bulls held their ground. This started a relief rally that hareached the 20-day EMA ($243).
If bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will increase the possibility that the break below $211 may have been a bear trap. The BNB/USDT pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($284) where the bears may again mount a strong resistance.
Another possibility is that the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the bears will try to pull the pair below $211 and challenge the June 18 intraday low of $183. A break below this support could indicate the start of a downtrend to $150.
The tight range trading in Ripple (XRP) resolved to the upside with a break above the 20-day EMA ($0.35) on June 24. This suggests that the bears may be losing their grip.
The buyers tried to propel the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.40) on June 24 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears continue to defend the level aggressively. If the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USDT pair could drop to $0.35.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up and breaks above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest the start of a new up-move. The pair could first rally to $0.46 and then make a dash toward $0.56.
Cardano (ADA) has been oscillating between the 20-day EMA ($0.50) and the strong support of $0.44 for the past few days but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.
The RSI has been gradually climbing higher, suggesting that the bearish momentum could be weakening. That enhances the prospects of a break above the moving averages. If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could climb toward $0.70.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are defending the level aggressively. The sellers will then try to pull the pair below the strong support zone of $0.44 to $0.40 and resume the downtrend.
Solana (SOL) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($36) on June 22 but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. The bulls purchased the dip and pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA on June 23.
If bulls sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($45). The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the bears may be losing their grip. A break and close above the 50-day SMA will indicate that the downtrend could be over.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price fails to sustain above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. If sellers pull the price below $33, the pair could slide to $27.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.06) since June 21. This suggests that the bulls are not closing their positions as they anticipate a break above the 20-day EMA.
The RSI has been gradually rising toward the midpoint and the 20-day EMA is flattening out, which suggests that the bulls are attempting a comeback.
If bulls thrust the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.08) where the bears may again pose a strong challenge. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to open the doors for a possible up-move to $0.10.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to pull the pair below $0.06 and challenge the psychological support at $0.05.
Polkadot (DOT) bounced off the $7.30 support on June 23, indicating that bulls are attempting to form a higher low. The price has reached the 20-day EMA ($8.15), which is an important barrier for the bulls to overcome.
The RSI has risen above 45 and the 20-day EMA is flattening out. This suggests that the bearish momentum could be weakening. If bulls push the price above the moving averages, the DOT/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $12.44.
This level may again act as a strong resistance and if the price turns down from it, the pair could remain stuck between $12.44 and $7.30 for a few days. The bears will have to sink the price below the $7.30 to $6.36 support zone to indicate the start of the next leg of the downtrend.
The bears tried to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.000009) on June 22 but the bulls held their ground. Shiba Inu (SHIB) rebounded off the 20-day EMA on June 23 but the buyers could not push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.000011).
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating equilibrium between buyers and sellers. This balance could tilt in favor of the bulls if they propel the price above the 50-day SMA. The SHIB/USDT pair could then rally to the overhead resistance at $0.000014.
Conversely, if the price turns down and plummets below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears have gained the upper hand. The pair could then slide to $0.000008.
UNUS SED LEO (LEO) repeatedly rose above the resistance line of the descending channel between June 22 and 24 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.
This suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the resistance line of the channel. The failure to sustain the price above the channel may tempt short-term traders to book profits.
That could pull the price to the 20-day EMA ($5.39). If the price rebounds off this support, the bulls will again attempt to push the LEO/USD pair above the channel. If they succeed, the next stop could be $6.50 and then $6.80.
On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the pair may remain stuck inside the channel for a few more days.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.